日本经济遭受内外部压力夹击

Economic Overview - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year in Q1, marking the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 2024, attributed to high prices and uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of GDP, grew only 0.04% quarter-on-quarter, indicating weak demand across various food and high-priced goods [1] - Exports fell by 0.6% in Q1, the first negative growth in four quarters, while imports increased by 2.9%, driven by aircraft imports and rising advertising service costs [1] Consumer Behavior - High food prices, particularly rice, are significantly impacting real wages and consumer spending, with rice prices remaining close to double the level of the previous year despite government interventions [2] - The ongoing debate within Japan regarding the potential increase of U.S. rice imports as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations highlights the tension between economic strategy and food security concerns [2] Trade Negotiations - Japan's trade representatives are closely monitoring the risks of economic recession due to U.S. trade policies, with rising prices potentially affecting consumer confidence and overall economic performance [3] - The upcoming third round of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations is critical, especially after previous rounds ended in stalemate, with Japan's insistence on zero tariffs being challenged by the current political landscape [4] Future Economic Outlook - Economic experts predict that the decline in Japan's economic data is just the beginning, with new U.S. tariffs expected to further impact consumer and business confidence [5] - Major Japanese automakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are forecasting significant financial losses due to U.S. tariffs, which may lead to reduced consumer activity and cautious corporate investment moving forward [5]