美联储会议纪要：通胀可能比想象中顽固 经济面临“滞胀”风险

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent inflation, slowing growth, and policy uncertainty [1][7]. Inflation - Despite a noticeable easing since 2022, as of March 2025, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index year-on-year increase is still at 2.6%, with overall inflation at 2.3%, slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2]. - Recent tariff increases have significantly impacted the prices of goods and services, with companies planning to pass on cost increases to consumers, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. - The Fed staff analysis indicates that inflation may be more persistent than previously expected, with projections suggesting inflation rates will remain above target until 2027 [2]. Labor Market - The labor market remains robust, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.2% as of April, close to the average level for the second half of 2024 [3]. - However, increasing trade policy uncertainty has led some companies, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and retail, to limit or pause hiring plans [3]. - While the current labor market is strong, there are concerns about potential signs of weakness in the coming months due to slowing economic activity and declining export demand [3]. Economic Growth - The first quarter saw a slight decline in actual GDP, attributed to fluctuations in net exports, with a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and weak export growth [4]. - The Fed staff predicts that newly announced trade policies will have a more severe impact on economic activity than previously anticipated, potentially dragging down the potential growth rate in the coming years [4]. Financial Markets - Recent financial market volatility has been notable, with long-term Treasury yields rising and the dollar depreciating against most major currencies, attributed to concerns over the adverse effects of trade policies on the U.S. economy [5]. - Although the overall functioning of financial markets remains orderly, liquidity indicators in the Treasury market have deteriorated, reflecting investor uncertainty regarding policy direction [5]. Monetary Policy Stance - The committee members agree that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate given the robust economic activity and labor market, while emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy adjustments based on new economic information [6][7]. - The Fed is committed to gradually normalizing its balance sheet by reducing holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [7]. Future Outlook - The FOMC signals a clear stance that, despite downward pressure on economic growth, the Fed will not easily shift to a loose monetary policy until inflation clearly returns to target levels [9]. - The Fed is closely monitoring global trade policy developments and their potential ripple effects on the U.S. economy, remaining vigilant and ready to respond flexibly to changes in economic data and risks [9].