Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Each market cycle has a leading industry, with AI technology expected to dominate the current cycle, similar to past cycles led by real estate, technology innovation, and renewable energy [2][4] - The macroeconomic environment in China is showing signs of improvement after a period of deflation, coinciding with a transition to new economic drivers led by AI [2][3] Group 2: Fundamentals - The Hong Kong technology sector is poised to benefit significantly from the AI narrative, with leading companies experiencing strong capital expenditure and cloud revenue growth [3] - Current valuations of Hong Kong technology stocks remain relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for significant upward adjustment [3] - By 2025, the profitability of the Hong Kong technology sector is expected to show strong certainty, with improved return on equity (ROE) anticipated for the Hang Seng Technology Index [3] Group 3: Capital Flow - Foreign capital outflows from the Hong Kong market are narrowing, while domestic institutional investment is accelerating, particularly through southbound capital flows [4] - The proportion of foreign investment in Chinese equity assets is currently low, suggesting potential for recovery in foreign capital inflows [4] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is highlighted as a more attractive investment, with a focus on internet giants benefiting from AI applications and sectors like hard technology and mid-to-high-end manufacturing [4]
国泰海通证券:下半年继续看好港股 恒生科技更优