Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group is expected to achieve net profits of 20.77 billion yuan, 22.38 billion yuan, and 23.45 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year changes of -7.1%, +7.7%, and +4.8% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Hongqiao Group is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive business model that includes thermal power, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing [1] - The company has established 13 production bases in Indonesia and various locations in China, with significant production capacities in alumina and electrolytic aluminum [1] - The controlling Zhang family holds 65.53% of the company's equity, and the company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, having distributed a total of 52.49 billion yuan in cash dividends since its listing in 2011, with an average dividend payout ratio of 44.3% [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has a leading global position in electrolytic aluminum production, with an average cost of 13,232 yuan per ton in 2024, benefiting from its self-supplied alumina and electricity [2] - The company's energy structure is expected to improve with falling coal prices, and it aims to increase its green aluminum ratio significantly with ongoing projects [2] - China Hongqiao has a self-sufficiency rate of over 160% in alumina production, ensuring stable costs for its aluminum production [2] Group 3: Future Growth Prospects - The company is involved in the development of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its performance significantly once operational [3] - The project has an initial production capacity of 120 million tons of high-quality iron ore per year, with expected contributions to the company's earnings starting in 2026 [3]
华创证券：首予中国宏桥(01378)“推荐”评级 目标价17.0港元 全产业链优势打造盈利护城河