2025年中国丙纶供需及进出口发展现状分析，国际竞争力显著提升，出口激增[图]

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene fiber industry is experiencing a steady increase in production, with output projected to grow from 294,100 tons in 2017 to 442,000 tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.3%. However, demand is expected to decline after a peak, with a forecasted demand of 371,600 tons in 2024, leading to an expanded supply-demand gap of 70,400 tons primarily due to a surge in export volumes [1][11]. Industry Development Overview - Polypropylene fiber, derived from the byproduct of petroleum refining, has unique characteristics such as being lightweight, high-strength, and resistant to acids and alkalis. The development of differentiated polypropylene fibers has progressed since the 1980s, with significant advancements in functional applications since 2010 [2]. Policy Background - Recent policies from multiple government departments have reinforced support for the functional chemical fiber industry, emphasizing technological innovation and the development of recycled materials. The 2023 "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog" encourages the recycling of polypropylene and the development of differentiated fibers while restricting low-end production capacity [5][6]. Industry Chain - The polypropylene industry chain consists of upstream production of polypropylene, midstream processing into various products like long fibers and non-woven fabrics, and downstream applications across diverse sectors including automotive, construction, and medical [7]. Supply and Demand Status - From 2017 to 2024, production is expected to rise to 442,000 tons, while demand is projected to fall to 371,600 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 70,400 tons. The increase in exports, which are expected to reach 72,500 tons by 2024, indicates a strong international competitiveness of Chinese polypropylene products [11][13]. Trade Dynamics - Export volumes have surged from 10,800 tons in 2017 to 72,500 tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 30.6%. Conversely, imports have decreased from 3,600 tons to 2,100 tons, indicating a significant trade surplus and a shift towards self-sufficiency in the industry [13]. Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by high fragmentation, with regional leaders like Hubei Botao and Guangdong Montai leveraging differentiation strategies. The industry concentration remains low, with the top five companies holding less than 30% market share, indicating a competitive environment [15]. Development Trends - The polypropylene industry is expected to transition towards a circular economy, focusing on recycling technologies and sustainable practices. The integration of advanced manufacturing and innovative materials will drive the development of high-end functional fibers for emerging applications [17].