PTA：供需边际转弱但原料支撑偏强 PTA短期存支撑

Market Overview - On May 28, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, with a general atmosphere of negotiation in the spot market, primarily driven by traders. The mainstream spot basis strengthened, with transactions around 09+185 for main port cargo and 09+178 for Ningbo cargo, within a price negotiation range of 4835 to 4925. Next week, warehouse receipts were traded at 09+180, and mid to late June receipts at 09+190. The mainstream spot basis was at 09+184 [1]. Cost Analysis - As of May 28, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 342 yuan/ton, while the TA2509 market processing fee was 356 yuan/ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, PTA operating rates increased to 77.1%, up by 0.2% [3]. - Demand: Major polyester manufacturers began to implement production cuts, with overall polyester operating rates adjusted down to approximately 93.9%, a decrease of 1.4%. On May 28, the price of polyester filament saw minor adjustments, with overall sales being average, although some were acceptable. Filament factories currently have relatively low inventory, and cash flow for FDY fine denier remains in a loss state. With raw material prices declining, filament prices are stable, and cash flow is expected to recover. Polyester factories are set to initiate a second round of production cuts, which may lead to price increases for certain heavily loss-making specifications. Ongoing attention is needed on downstream demand recovery and the latest progress of filament factory production cuts [3]. Market Outlook - In late May, PTA facilities are gradually restarting, while future PTA maintenance plans remain unclear. Coupled with strong production cut sentiments from major polyester manufacturers, the supply-demand balance for PTA is marginally weakening. Additionally, limited support from the cost side due to oil prices puts significant pressure on PTA. However, the supply-demand situation for raw material PX is tight, and with low processing fees, PTA is expected to have strong support. Attention should be paid to the extent of production cuts in downstream polyester. The strategy suggests that TA will oscillate in the range of 4600 to 4800, with strong support at lower levels; a reverse spread strategy for TA9-1 is recommended [4].