Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-29 05:19Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The core focus of the global economic landscape is the rebalancing of inflation and debt, with countries experiencing divergent outcomes based on their debt levels [2] - The U.S. is facing the "Triffin Dilemma" and high fiscal deficit pressures, leading to increased market volatility [2][3] - Current U.S. economic indicators show resilience in consumption and investment, but inflationary pressures may complicate monetary policy [3] Group 2: China's Economic Recovery - China's economy is characterized by a "volatile recovery," with policy-driven consumption and manufacturing focusing on high-quality development [4][5] - The consumption market is rebounding, with retail sales growth of 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, driven by policies like trade-in programs [4] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with significant contributions from technological innovations [4] Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy in China - China's macroeconomic policy is expected to become more proactive, focusing on "stabilizing growth, managing debt, and promoting transformation" [6][7] - Fiscal policy is set to increase, with a projected deficit of 13.9 trillion yuan and a deficit rate of 4% for 2025, alongside significant special bond issuance [6] - Monetary policy has room for further easing, with expectations for additional rate cuts and liquidity support measures [6] Group 4: Asset Class Outlook - In the asset class outlook, A-shares are seen as relatively undervalued compared to bonds, particularly in high-dividend and technology sectors [8] - Government bond yields are expected to have downward potential, with a flattening yield curve anticipated [8] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to remain stable within the 7.0-7.35 range, influenced by balanced factors [8] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to closely monitor policy trends and industry dynamics to identify structural opportunities amid volatility [9] - The global economy is expected to navigate through a phase of divergence between the U.S. and China, with the latter likely achieving a stable recovery through policy support and structural upgrades [9]