Amazon and Walmart Hit the Wall as Shoppers Shift Spending

Core Insights - Amazon and Walmart experienced their weakest quarterly sales growth since before the pandemic in Q1 2025, with Amazon at 3.7% and Walmart at 3.2%, indicating a return to normalized demand that is growing near the rate of inflation [1][5][8] - Both companies are losing ground in total consumer spending as consumers shift their spending from goods to services, housing, and healthcare [2][11][13] Sales Growth - In Q1 2025, Amazon's year-over-year growth was 3.7%, while Walmart's was 3.2%, both barely outpacing inflation [5][8] - Amazon's growth has typically hovered around 10% since 2022, making the recent 3.7% particularly disappointing [6] - Walmart's growth, usually around 5%, also contracted to historic lows [6] Market Share Dynamics - Amazon captured 8.6% of total retail spending in Q1 2025, its highest first-quarter share to date, while Walmart held steady at 7.7% [10] - However, when considering total consumer spending, Amazon's share declined to 3.3% from 3.4% and Walmart's to 2.6% from 2.8% year-over-year [12][13] Discretionary Spending Trends - Amazon's share of discretionary spending fell to 23% in Q1 2025 from 26% in Q4 2024, marking one of its lower Q1 discretionary shares since 2022 [14] - Conversely, Walmart's share of discretionary spending increased to 6.4% in Q1 2025, its strongest seasonal performance in two years [15] Consumer Behavior Shifts - The shift in consumer spending patterns indicates a focus on price and perceived value, particularly for Walmart, which may benefit from its historical price leadership and expanded eCommerce efforts [16][17] - Both companies face challenges in maintaining their share in discretionary spending, with Amazon needing to focus on pricing competitiveness and Walmart potentially reshaping its position in higher-margin segments [17]