全球前景扑朔迷离？大摩下注这几类资产，投资风向已明朗

Global Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts a downward trend in global economic growth over the next 12 months, with global GDP growth expected to slow from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, primarily due to structural shocks from U.S. tariffs on global trade [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with trade tensions contributing to asymmetric risks [2][3] - The Eurozone and Japan are also expected to experience lower growth rates due to the impact of tariffs on exports and investments [2] U.S. Asset Allocation - Despite slowing global growth, Morgan Stanley suggests a positive outlook for U.S. assets excluding the dollar, recommending increased allocations to U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, and investment-grade corporate bonds [4][5] - The firm anticipates a significant depreciation of the dollar, predicting a 9% drop in the DXY index to 91 by mid-2026, as U.S. growth and yields converge with other developed economies [5] - U.S. stock market valuations have adjusted, but uncertainties regarding the full impact of tariffs remain, leading to a preference for high-quality cyclical and defensive stocks [5] Central Bank Policies - Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until the end of 2025, followed by a reduction of 175 basis points in 2026, which is more aggressive than current market expectations [8] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also projected to continue easing monetary policy due to weak economic growth and declining inflation [8] Commodity Market Trends - The oil market is expected to face oversupply in late 2025 and 2026, leading to a downward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts by $5-10 per barrel [10] - Natural gas prices in Europe may rise due to low inventory levels and competition for liquefied natural gas, with potential prices reaching €40 per MWh [10] - Gold is favored due to strong central bank demand and inflows into gold ETFs, while industrial metals may face downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies [11] Credit Market Outlook - Optimism in the credit market has increased due to positive news regarding U.S.-China trade relations, prompting Morgan Stanley to lower credit spread forecasts across various regions [12][13] - The firm projects a tightening of credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, reflecting improved market sentiment [13]