集运指数期货大涨 船司宣涨推动多头卷土重来？

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 9% and reaching a peak of 2189 points, driven by COSCO's announcement of increased freight rates for 40-foot containers from $2500 to $2700, indicating a positive trend in the short term for the shipping market [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Market Dynamics - The current shipping market is characterized by a divergence between the European and American lines, with the European line facing challenges such as low demand momentum and low loading rates, limiting the potential for freight rate increases [2]. - Several shipping companies have attempted to raise rates on both the American and European lines, but market skepticism regarding the effectiveness of these price increases has emerged, particularly after previous failed attempts [2]. - The key to the shipping market's expectations lies in the growth rhythm of traditional peak season cargo volumes and the coordination of cross-route capacity adjustments, with a focus on the loading rates in the European line and cargo conversion efficiency in the American line [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the stability of spot freight rates will determine the trajectory of the shipping index (European line) in the short term, with a need to maintain current levels to solidify peak season expectations [2]. - The shipping market is entering a critical verification phase, where the actual performance of freight rates in early June will be crucial for future trends [2]. - There is a cautious outlook on the American line's "rush shipping" scale, with some analysts not optimistic about its impact on the European line, as recent data indicates a decrease in weekly capacity for the Shanghai-Northern Europe route [2].