【财经分析】城投债热度依旧 机构建议布局中长久期

Core Viewpoint - The credit bonds, particularly urban investment bonds, are showing strong performance despite the weak performance of interest rate bonds, with significant opportunities for investment in the 3 to 5-year maturity range [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Bond Performance - Since May, credit bonds have continued to strengthen, with yields declining and credit spreads narrowing, particularly in urban investment bonds [2]. - The yield on urban investment bonds has decreased by 1 to 9 basis points, with credit spreads compressing by 1 to 8 basis points during the week of May 19 to May 23 [2]. - The weighted average yield for 3 to 5-year urban investment bonds is 2.43%, which is 33 basis points higher than that of industrial bonds of the same maturity [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The favorable supply and demand environment is a key factor supporting the strong performance of urban investment bonds [4]. - Demand for credit bonds is increasing, with the TKN (total known net) proportion for urban investment bonds reaching 77%, and the proportion of undervalued bonds rising from 74% to 81% [4]. - The net financing scale for urban investment bonds is expected to be negative for three consecutive months, which is historically rare [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment institutions are advised to focus on urban investment bonds with yields above 2.3%, particularly in provinces like Shandong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and others [6][7]. - Specific cities such as Qingdao, Chengdu, and Xi'an have a high scale of urban investment bonds with yields above 2.3%, making them attractive for investment [6]. - The strategy should include a mix of long-term and short-term bonds, with a focus on high-grade credit bonds for a duration of 5 years and urban investment bonds for 2 to 3 years [7].