经济阴云叠加关税变数 美元遭遇双重打击重拾跌势

Core Viewpoint - Recent U.S. economic data has shown weakness, raising concerns about economic growth and putting pressure on the dollar [1][3] Economic Data Impact - Initial jobless claims increased more than expected, and the U.S. GDP for the first quarter showed contraction, contributing to the decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Index and Treasury yields [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court's decision to halt several broad tariff measures has added to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies [1][4] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Circuit Court's temporary stay on the Trade Court's ruling has led to skepticism among investors regarding the stability of U.S. trade policies [1][3] - Analysts suggest that despite the court's ruling, the Trump administration may still find ways to implement its economic policies through alternative measures [3][4] Market Reactions - The dollar initially strengthened during the Asian trading session due to the trade court's ruling but quickly reversed gains in the London session, declining against all G10 currencies [3] - Goldman Sachs analysts believe the ruling represents only a temporary setback for Trump's trade agenda, which could be offset by other tax measures [4] Options Market Sentiment - Options traders maintain a bearish outlook on the dollar for the next year, although confidence has slightly weakened [5] - The nominal value of bearish options positions exceeds that of bullish positions by approximately $13 billion, indicating a preference for downside protection [8] Currency Trends - The sentiment towards currencies such as the euro, Swiss franc, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar against the dollar remains strong among options traders [8]