【环球财经】美元持稳等待PCE数据 澳新货币周线承压

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth in three years, complicating interest rate outlooks [1] - Australia's retail sales in April fell by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected growth of 0.3%, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [2] - Retail sales in Australia for April reached AUD 37.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 3.8%, reflecting a decline in clothing retail due to unseasonably warm weather [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The San Francisco Fed President indicated the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, contingent on ensuring inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) has lowered its consumption expectations for the year but remains hopeful for a combination effect from tax cuts, easing inflation, and lower borrowing costs [2] - Market expectations suggest a 60% probability of a rate cut at the RBA's July meeting, with analysts anticipating three rate cuts within the year, bringing the cash rate to a neutral level of 3.10% [3] Group 3: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the US dollar to 0.6424 following the retail sales data release, with a cumulative decline of over 1% for the week [3] - The New Zealand dollar also dropped 0.3% against the US dollar, maintaining a recent trading range of 0.5847 to 0.6031 [3] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank cut rates to 3.25% but did not signal further easing, providing temporary support for the New Zealand dollar [4]