利率调降引存款搬家“多米诺效应”调查

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit interest rates by major banks has led to a significant shift of funds from deposits to wealth management products, creating pressure on banks' funding costs and challenging their ability to maintain net interest margins [2][3][5][7]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes and Market Reactions - Major banks initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts on May 20, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1% [2][7]. - As of May 29, the scale of bank wealth management products reached 31.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" towards these products [2][5]. - The issuance rate of one-year AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.7%, approximately 6 basis points higher than on May 20, increasing banks' funding costs [3][7]. Group 2: Challenges for Banks - Banks are facing increased pressure on their liability side as retail deposits flow into wealth management and other asset management products [5][6]. - To counteract this, banks are focusing on corporate clients, promoting loan products alongside payroll services to secure low-cost settlement funds [6][8]. - The reduction in deposit rates has made it more challenging for banks to retain deposits, as corporate clients are less sensitive to rate changes compared to retail clients [6][8]. Group 3: Wealth Management Product Adjustments - Wealth management product managers are under pressure to meet customer expectations for returns, with many clients seeking annualized returns of around 2.3%, despite declining bond yields [3][9][11]. - There is a growing demand for high-yield, low-volatility investment options, leading banks to accelerate the development of structured wealth management products that incorporate equity-like assets [9][12]. - The market for high-rated bonds is tightening, making it increasingly difficult for banks to secure the necessary assets to meet client expectations [10][11]. Group 4: Future Strategies and Market Outlook - Banks are adjusting their asset allocation strategies to include more REITs and convertible bonds, aiming to enhance overall returns while controlling volatility [12]. - The anticipated continuation of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve may lead banks to increase investments in dollar-denominated fixed-income products for stable income [12]. - The ongoing "asset shortage" in the bond market is expected to persist, driven by the migration of deposits into wealth management products, which increases demand for high-quality bonds [10].