磨底失败？碳酸锂跌破6万元/吨关键关口

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced a significant decline, dropping to a recent low of 59,500 yuan/ton, which is a 90% decrease from the peak of 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of lithium salt enterprises and the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Price Trends - In 2023, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China fell to 103,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, an 80.38% decrease from the average of 525,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [2]. - The price trend for 2024 is expected to show a "rise then fall" pattern, with a 30% increase in early months due to environmental issues and inventory replenishment, followed by a decline due to supply-demand imbalance [2][6]. - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,100 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade was 61,500 yuan/ton, indicating a continued downward trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with global lithium salt production increasing by 23% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the demand for power batteries is showing signs of slowing down [6][7]. - As of May 2025, total social inventory of lithium carbonate reached 131,700 tons, with salt plant inventory increasing by 8.8%, indicating prolonged destocking cycles [6][7]. Cost Structure Changes - The production costs for lithium salt enterprises are decreasing, with salt lake enterprises maintaining costs around 40,000 yuan/ton, while African mines range from 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Companies are transitioning to lower-cost production methods, with some salt lake projects expected to achieve production costs as low as 32,000 yuan/ton [8]. Market Outlook - The current market sentiment remains pessimistic due to the downward spiral of salt and mineral prices, with many lithium salt enterprises struggling to maintain profitability [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market may only return to balance after the elimination of loss-making capacities, indicating that prices are likely to remain weak in the short term [8].