【环球财经】美国4月PCE前瞻：通胀数据会否让美联储降息前景再生变？

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator, the PCE, is expected to show a slowdown in April, with a year-on-year growth rate forecasted to decrease by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The core PCE is also anticipated to slow down, with a year-on-year growth rate expected to drop by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be immediately evident, with expectations that the effects will manifest in the data for May or June [8] Group 2 - The consumer price index (CPI) growth in April was moderate and below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, which analysts believe may represent the low point for 2025 [2] - The Cleveland Fed's model predicts that the April PCE will show a month-on-month increase of 0.19% and a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, while the core PCE is expected to rise by 0.21% month-on-month and 2.60% year-on-year [2] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen significantly, with one-year expectations increasing from 6.5% to 7.3%, the highest since 1981, and five-to-ten-year expectations rising from 4.4% to 4.6%, the highest since 1991 [8] Group 3 - Major U.S. companies, including Walmart and Nike, are indicating price increases for their products due to the impact of tariffs [9] - The stability of inflation expectations is crucial, as high expectations can lead to a self-fulfilling spiral of inflation [9] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until September, with expectations of one to two cuts throughout the year [12]