PROP vs. CIVI: Which DJ Basin Player Has the Upper Hand?

Core Viewpoint - Prairie Operating Co. (PROP) and Civitas Resources (CIVI) are two independent energy firms competing in Colorado's DJ Basin, with PROP focusing on aggressive growth through acquisitions and CIVI emphasizing cost discipline and expansion into high-return Permian assets [1][2]. Group 1: Prairie Operating Co. (PROP) - Strategic Growth via Acquisitions: PROP has executed over $800 million in acquisitions since 2023, tripling its scale and adding 54,000 net acres and over 28,000 BOE/d in output [3][4]. - Financial Firepower and Production Growth: Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is forecasted between $350 million and $370 million, with net income guidance of $69 million to $102 million, and expected production averaging 29,000 to 31,000 BOE/d in 2025, a more than 300% increase year over year [4][5]. - Strategic Hedging Locks in Upside: PROP has hedged about 85% of its 2025 daily production at $68.27/bbl WTI, providing visibility on cash flows and protecting against market volatility, with a hedge book valued at approximately $70 million [5]. Group 2: Civitas Resources (CIVI) - Cost Optimization and Cash Flow Strength: CIVI is targeting $100 million in additional annual free cash flow through a company-wide cost optimization plan, expecting to generate $1.3 billion in free cash flow in 2024 and $1.1 billion in 2025 [6]. - Focused Permian Expansion: CIVI has shifted 40% of its capital activity to the Delaware Basin, which has shown the highest returns, with operational gains reflected in faster drilling rates and enhanced capital efficiency [7]. - Robust Balance Sheet and Hedging Strategy: CIVI aims to achieve a $4.5 billion net debt target by year-end 2025, with nearly $200 million in hedge value secured, insulating free cash flow against oil price volatility [8]. Group 3: Price Performance and Valuation - Price Performance: Both PROP and CIVI have seen significant declines over the past year, with PROP down 71% and CIVI down 61%, attributed to weak oil prices and macro concerns [10]. - Valuation Comparison: PROP trades at 0.27X forward sales, significantly lower than CIVI's 0.56X, indicating a potential undervaluation [13]. - EPS Estimates: PROP's earnings are projected to surge by 382.9% in 2025, while CIVI's EPS is expected to fall by 29.3% in the same year, highlighting PROP's stronger growth trajectory [14][16]. Group 4: Conclusion - Both PROP and CIVI carry a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with CIVI offering strong free cash flow and disciplined cost control, while PROP presents exciting growth potential and an improving cash flow profile, positioning PROP slightly better at this moment [19].