Gilead Sciences Stock Gains 21% YTD: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. has demonstrated strong performance in a volatile market, with shares up 21.1% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 Index, which declined by 4.7% [1][8]. Group 1: HIV Market Leadership - Gilead is a dominant player in the HIV market, with its flagship drug Biktarvy accounting for over 51% of the treatment market share in the U.S. [4] - The company’s Descovy for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) maintains over 40% market share in the U.S. [5] - The FDA has accepted new drug applications for lenacapavir for HIV prevention, with a target action date of June 19, 2025, which could enhance Gilead's HIV franchise [5][6]. Group 2: Liver Disease Portfolio - The FDA approval of seladelpar (Livdelzi) for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) strengthens Gilead's liver disease portfolio and validates its CymaBay acquisition [7][9]. Group 3: Oncology Business Challenges - Gilead's oncology portfolio, including the Cell Therapy franchise and Trodelvy, faces competitive pressures, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which are expected to continue into 2025 [10]. - Despite challenges, positive results from the phase III ASCENT-03 study on Trodelvy indicate potential for improvement in the oncology business [11]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Estimates - Gilead's shares trade at a price/earnings ratio of 13.70x forward earnings, lower than the large-cap pharma industry's average of 14.62x but higher than its historical mean of 10.53x [12]. - Earnings estimates for Gilead have increased, with the 2025 bottom-line estimate rising to $7.91 from $7.87, and the 2026 estimate improving to $8.39 from $8.31 [14]. Group 5: Strategic Positioning and Dividends - Gilead's strategic deals and acquisitions are aimed at diversifying its business, although Biktarvy sales may face pressure due to Medicare Part D redesign [17]. - The company has a strong cash position of $7.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, and has consistently increased dividends, declaring a quarterly dividend of $0.79 per share for Q2 2025, indicating a sustainable yield of 2.91% [18].