【环球财经】市场担忧产油国继续加快退出自愿减产 国际油价30日小幅下跌

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices experienced fluctuations due to concerns over OPEC+ countries potentially increasing oil supply in July, leading to a decline in prices after an initial rise [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of the close on May 30, the price of light crude oil for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.15 to $60.79 per barrel, a decrease of 0.25% [1]. - The price of Brent crude oil for July delivery decreased by $0.25 to $63.90 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 0.39% [1]. - The market saw a shift from an initial increase in oil prices to a decline due to news regarding OPEC+ discussions on supply adjustments [1]. Group 2: OPEC+ Supply Adjustments - Eight OPEC+ countries are expected to discuss increasing oil supply by more than 411,000 barrels per day in a meeting scheduled for May 31 [1]. - These countries have already increased their oil supply in May and June to three times the previously planned adjustment, reaching 411,000 barrels per day [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the current supply-demand imbalance in the global oil market has expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day, indicating a need for price adjustments to restore balance [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that oil prices will likely remain within the current volatile range and may drop below $60 per barrel by the end of the year [2]. - Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares warns that if OPEC+ countries increase supply as expected, oil prices could see a decline of approximately 10%, potentially falling to between $53 and $55 per barrel [2]. - Alex Hodes from StoneX notes that while oil prices are stabilizing, bullish momentum is lacking, and expectations of increased supply are balancing potential disruptions from sanctions [2]. Group 4: Active Oil Rig Count - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 4 to a total of 461, representing a year-on-year decline of 35 rigs [3]. - In Canada, the active oil rig count fell by 2 to 69, with a year-on-year decrease of 5 rigs [3].