智通财经网·2025-05-31 09:50Core Viewpoint - The lithium price decline has slowed down in Q1 2025, leading to a slight recovery in overseas lithium mine prices and improved operations for salt lake companies, but the industry is facing significant losses as prices drop to 60,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, overseas lithium mine production decreased, with a total output of 1.01 million tons, a decline of over 10% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Major lithium mines saw a slight price recovery in Q1 2025, with average prices rising above $800/ton, driven by strong demand in the Chinese market [2] - The price of lithium concentrate has entered a new downward trend since Q2 2025, dropping below $650/ton by the end of May, leading to increased operational pressure and losses for overseas lithium miners [3] Group 2: South American Salt Lake Operations - In Q1 2025, lithium sales for ALB, SQM, and LAAC/Ganfeng Lithium were 44,000 tons, 55,000 tons, and 7,200 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6%, 26%, and 60% [4] - ALB and SQM showed improved operational performance in Q1 2025 due to reduced price declines and increased contributions from other business segments [4] - South American salt lake lithium companies are continuing their expansion plans, with LAR and Ganfeng Lithium aiming to increase their lithium production capacity in Argentina to over 200,000 tons [4] Group 3: Supply and Price Outlook - As of the end of May 2025, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton, further expanding industry losses and strengthening expectations for mine production cuts and price rebounds [5] - The company expects lithium prices to stabilize and rebound at current levels, but long-term prices are anticipated to remain at the bottom due to oversupply and cost-cutting efforts by lithium resource companies [5] - The adjusted forecast for lithium prices in the second half of 2025 is set at 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [5]