新股前瞻｜日御股份： 光伏银浆龙头业绩暴增 仍难破流动性困局？

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of photovoltaic companies listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange continues, with Jiangsu Riyu Photovoltaic New Materials Co., Ltd. applying for an IPO, aiming to leverage its position as a leading supplier of conductive silver paste for solar cells [1][2]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Riyu was established in September 2015 and specializes in producing conductive silver paste for various types of solar cells, including TOPCon, xBC, and PERC cells [2]. - The company is projected to rank first among the top five global manufacturers of conductive silver paste by revenue in 2024, capturing approximately 4.8% of the global market share in both revenue and sales volume [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown rapid growth, with figures of 393 million RMB in 2022, 1.594 billion RMB in 2023, and 2.285 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 141.3% [3][4]. - Gross profit for the same period was 37.46 million RMB, 179.27 million RMB, and 211.80 million RMB, with gross margins of 9.5%, 11.2%, and 9.3% respectively [4]. - Net profit increased significantly from 877,000 RMB in 2022 to 9.224 million RMB in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 925.6% [3][4]. Product Dynamics - The company's product mix has shifted in response to industry trends, with TOPCon silver paste becoming a major revenue contributor, while PERC silver paste has seen a decline in sales [7][8]. - The sales volume of TOPCon silver paste surged from 0.03 tons in 2022 to 241.70 tons in 2024, with average prices increasing from 5,667 RMB/kg to 6,624 RMB/kg [4][5]. Market Trends - The photovoltaic silver paste market is expected to grow from 46.8 billion RMB in 2024 to 116 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 19.9% [11]. - The shift from PERC technology to N-type technologies like TOPCon and xBC is driving demand for high-performance silver paste, with N-type battery shipments projected to reach 1,166.9 GW by 2029, accounting for 95.4% of global shipments [6][11]. Competitive Landscape - The global silver paste market is highly concentrated, with the top five manufacturers holding approximately 73% of the market share [13]. - Jiangsu Riyu ranks fourth among global silver paste manufacturers, but still lags behind the top three companies, which have significantly higher revenues [13][16]. Challenges - The company faces high raw material costs, which accounted for over 97% of total sales costs in recent years, and a high customer concentration risk, with its top five customers generating nearly 75% of total revenue in 2024 [8][9]. - The company's operating cash flow has been negative, indicating a reliance on external financing to meet cash demands [10][12].