Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang·2025-06-01 01:14Industry Overview - The polyethylene industry in China is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," with a production capacity of 34.31 million tons per year in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.86% [1][10] - Demand for polyethylene continues to grow in traditional sectors such as packaging, construction, and agriculture, particularly driven by the expansion of e-commerce logistics [1][10] - The diversification of technological routes is leading to an increased share of light hydrocarbon-based polyethylene production due to cost advantages, while coal-to-olefin projects are shifting towards high-end production under policy constraints [1][10] Industry Development History - The development of the polyethylene industry in China has gone through four stages: initial stage (1950s-1970s), rapid development (1980s-2000s), high-speed growth (2001-2010), and structural adjustment and upgrading (2011-present) [4][5][6] - The industry saw significant technological upgrades in the 1980s and 1990s, with the introduction of advanced equipment from Japan and Germany [4] - The entry into the WTO in 2001 led to a surge in exports and the establishment of foreign enterprises in China, further expanding production capacity [5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the polyethylene industry includes raw materials and production equipment, primarily ethylene sourced from crude oil cracking, natural gas, and coal [8] - The midstream involves the manufacturing of polyethylene, while the downstream applications span packaging, construction materials, agricultural films, and more [8] Current Industry Status - The polyethylene market is currently characterized by "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand," with a main settlement price of 7,157.2 yuan per ton as of April 25, 2025 [14] - Despite a year-on-year increase in production capacity, supply has been temporarily tightened due to maintenance of production facilities [14] - The import volume of polyethylene has increased by 6.35% to 363.71 thousand tons, indicating strong domestic demand despite high reliance on imports [12][14] Key Companies' Performance - China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) leads the market with a polyethylene production capacity of 9.02 million tons per year, having developed high-end products that break international monopolies [18] - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has a capacity of 6.6 million tons per year, focusing on high-end polyethylene products and achieving significant sales growth [20] - The competitive landscape is marked by low market concentration, with state-owned enterprises dominating high-end markets while private enterprises like Zhejiang Petrochemical are rapidly emerging [16][18] Industry Development Trends - The polyethylene industry is expected to continue expanding capacity while optimizing its structure, focusing on high-end product development to meet increasing market demands [22] - Technological innovation and green development are becoming mainstream, with advancements in catalysts and production processes aimed at improving efficiency and reducing costs [23][24] - Market demand is diversifying, with applications expanding into new sectors such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics, prompting companies to enhance product development and international market strategies [25]