高盛：中国市场，分化正在进行时！

Core Viewpoint - Recent research from Goldman Sachs indicates a significant divergence between small-cap and large-cap stocks in China, reflected in trading volume distribution, performance, concepts, and investor structure [1][11]. Trading Volume Distribution - This week, the trading volume of micro-cap stocks reached a historical high, while the trading volume of the CSI 300 index hit a historical low [1]. Performance Divergence - Smaller market capitalization stocks have outperformed larger ones, with the following week-to-date performance and P/E ratios: - SHCOMP: 0.5%, P/E 14.5 - SSE 50: -0.8%, P/E 10.9 - CSI 300: -0.6%, P/E 12.5 - A 500: -0.4%, P/E 14.5 - CHiNext: -0.4%, P/E 30.5 - STAR50: 0.6%, P/E 139.2 - CSI 500: 1.2%, P/E 28.9 - CSI 1000: 1.7%, P/E 39.6 - CSI 2000: 2.9%, P/E 136.9 - Wind Micro Cap: 3.8% [1]. Concept Divergence - Large-cap indices still reflect market views on economic fundamentals, while micro-cap stocks mainly represent liquidity and retail investor sentiment [2]. Investor Structure Divergence - Micro-cap stocks are primarily dominated by domestic retail investors and speculative funds, whereas large-cap stocks (CSI 500 and above) are mainly led by domestic and foreign institutions [2]. Margin Balance and Fund Activity - Despite a rapid decline in margin balances in April, they have remained around 1.8 trillion yuan in the past two months, significantly above historical averages [4]. - Public funds have notably reduced stock positions following the recent Sino-US Geneva meeting, with the overall stock holding ratio reaching a new low of 70.61% since April [4]. Market Sentiment Indicators - The put-call skew indicator for domestic indices is nearing a one-year high, indicating a lack of confidence in short-term upward movement, while investors are cautiously optimistic about domestic stock indices [9].