（财经天下）国际金融机构警示美债风险，到期压力有多大？

Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the loss of the last "AAA" rating among major international rating agencies, primarily due to the increasing scale of U.S. government debt and its interest payment ratio [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, predicts that U.S. debt could reach $50 trillion by 2035, suggesting that Moody's has underestimated the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Goldman Sachs' president John Waldron indicates that the focus in the bond market is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising U.S. government debt, which is pushing up long-term interest rates, particularly the 30-year Treasury yield, to its highest level in nearly two decades [1] Group 2 - Concerns among foreign investors regarding U.S. Treasury bonds are rising due to high inflation and a weakening dollar, which could diminish the actual value of their holdings [2] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that the volatility in the U.S. bond market poses risks to financial stability, with potential long-term impacts on the U.S. economy if the dollar's safe-haven status changes [2] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with the government caught in a vicious cycle of fiscal deficits, borrowing, and high-interest repayments [2] Group 3 - The pressure from maturing U.S. debt is described as "rolling," with a significant increase in the monthly maturity scale since the Fed's interest rate hikes began in 2022 [3] - The U.S. national debt reached its statutory limit at the beginning of the year, restricting new debt issuance, which could lead to increased maturity pressure if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt ceiling before August [3] - The U.S. debt crisis reflects broader concerns about government credit and is fundamentally a monetary crisis, emphasizing the need for balance in domestic inflation control and external dollar confidence [3]