Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in June is expected to see a "reduction in quantity and improvement in quality," with a weak recovery in transaction volumes continuing, as new home sales are likely to remain stable year-on-year and show a slight increase month-on-month [1][11]. Supply Overview - In June, the supply of new homes in 28 key cities is projected to decrease by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 5.47 million square meters expected to be supplied, reflecting a 14% month-on-month decline and a 47% year-on-year drop [1][5]. - The supply structure in key cities shows a focus on improvement, with the proportions of demand categories being 34% for basic needs, 55% for improvement, and 12% for high-end properties [7][10]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities are experiencing a steady decline in supply, with Shanghai and Shenzhen nearly at a standstill, while Beijing and Guangzhou see temporary increases [3][4]. - In June, the expected supply in first-tier cities is 1.34 million square meters, down 10% month-on-month and 44% year-on-year [3][5]. - Second-tier cities are also seeing accelerated declines, with an expected supply of 3.86 million square meters in June, down 17% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The market is showing signs of divergence, with resilient cities like Changsha and Kunming experiencing significant month-on-month increases, while cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou are facing notable declines [4][11]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is expected to be 34%, down 11 percentage points month-on-month but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Supply Structure - The supply focus remains on urban centers, with 60% of new supply concentrated in main urban areas, 32% in suburban areas, and only 8% in rural areas [10]. - Cities like Xiamen and Fuzhou have over 90% of their supply in main urban areas, while cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have a significant portion in suburban projects [10].
克而瑞:预计6月供给“缩量提质” 成交延续弱复苏
智通财经网·2025-06-02 02:00