探寻产业发展“新引擎” | 从“计划发电”到“市场定价” 新能源项目上网电量全部入市

Core Viewpoint - The transition to a market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy in China is expected to enhance market efficiency and promote a low-carbon transformation in the energy sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Changes and Growth - From June 1, 2024, all renewable energy projects' grid-connected electricity will enter the electricity market, with prices determined through market transactions [1]. - In 2024, China's total electricity generation is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, with wind and solar power generation significantly increasing [2]. - Wind power generation is expected to rise from 885.87 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023 to 997.04 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, while solar power generation is anticipated to surge from 584.15 billion kilowatt-hours to 839.04 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. Group 2: Market Structure and Competition - The number of registered trading participants has increased from 42,000 in 2016 to 816,000 in 2024, indicating a significant rise in market participation [3]. - The proportion of market-based electricity transactions has grown from 17% in 2016 to 63% in 2024, with cross-regional transactions reaching 1.4 trillion kilowatt-hours [3]. - The new regulations implemented on June 1 are seen as a critical step in the reform of the electricity market, allowing renewable energy to participate in market competition [3][4]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism and Investment Logic - A flexible pricing mechanism is being established to match the growing electricity demand with supply, enhancing the system's adjustment capabilities [4][5]. - The rapid advancement of marketization is reshaping the investment logic in the energy sector, with power generation companies no longer relying on government subsidies [5][6]. - The market now includes various trading methods, such as long-term contracts and spot trading, which help restore the commodity nature of electricity [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The transition to market-based pricing introduces uncertainties for renewable energy pricing, with companies needing to adapt to competitive pressures [8]. - The marketization of electricity pricing is expected to drive companies to innovate in technology, operational models, and trading strategies [9]. - The ongoing reforms aim to create a clean, low-carbon, and efficient modern energy system, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation [10].