油价下跌 需求回升 航企盈利前景有望改善

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see improved operating profits due to falling oil prices and a stable recovery in demand, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting a net profit margin of 3.7% for 2025, up from 3.4% in 2024 and a previous forecast of 3.6% [1] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - The average fuel price is expected to decrease to $86 per barrel in 2025, down from $99 per barrel in 2024, leading to a reduction in annual fuel costs to $236 billion, which will account for 25.8% of total operating costs, a 9.6% decrease from $261 billion in 2024 [2] - The significant drop in oil prices since the beginning of 2025, with WTI crude futures at $60.79 and Brent crude at $63.90, both down over 15%, is anticipated to improve airline cost structures [2] - Fuel costs represent about one-third of airlines' total operating costs, and a 10% decrease in fuel prices could potentially increase profits by approximately $5 billion for major Chinese airlines based on 2024 cost estimates [2] Group 2: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - IATA forecasts that the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will double to 2 million tons in 2025 from 1 million tons in 2024, although SAF currently accounts for only 0.7% of total aviation fuel usage [3] Group 3: Fuel Surcharge Adjustments - To mitigate fuel price volatility, airlines are optimizing capacity, enhancing marketing, and improving load factors to increase unit revenue [4] - The domestic aviation fuel surcharge mechanism in China allows airlines to adjust surcharges based on aviation fuel prices, with recent adjustments reducing surcharges for flights over 800 kilometers by $1 and eliminating them for shorter flights [5] Group 4: Industry Performance and Trends - The domestic aviation industry has shown signs of recovery, with major airlines like Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines reporting reduced losses in 2024 compared to 2023 [7] - The overall passenger load factor in the domestic aviation sector reached a new high of 83.3% in 2024, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, with major airlines reporting load factors around 85% [8] - The industry is expected to return to normal operations as international travel demand grows, aided by falling oil prices and the upcoming peak travel season [8]