特朗普关税政策重压美元 加剧投资者对全球增长放缓担忧

Core Viewpoint - The new round of tariffs introduced by President Trump is having a profound impact on the global economy, leading to a slowdown in U.S. imports and raising concerns about global growth and inflation [1] Group 1: Currency Impact - The U.S. dollar index has dropped 8.4% year-to-date, nearing its lowest level since spring 2022, reflecting the dollar's poor performance against six major currencies [1] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed not only to Trump's trade policies but also to a new "revenge tax" proposal in the recent U.S. fiscal legislation, which may further undermine international investors' confidence in the U.S. market [1] Group 2: Global Capital Flows - The "revenge tax" could suppress global surplus capital inflow into U.S. capital markets, negatively impacting the dollar [2] - Despite a weak Eurozone economy and recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, the euro has appreciated 11% against the dollar this year, indicating a broader trend of strengthening global currencies [2] Group 3: Long-term Challenges - The softening dollar may benefit U.S. exporters by enhancing their international competitiveness, but it poses long-term challenges for U.S. financial markets [2] - The U.S. trade deficit relies heavily on foreign capital inflows, which support the stock market and keep Treasury yields low; maintaining these inflows is crucial for the dollar's long-term stability [2]