Will Dollar General or Dollar Tree Stock Keep Rising as Earnings Near?

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General and Dollar Tree are experiencing a rebound in stock prices due to turnaround strategies aimed at improving operational efficiency, with upcoming quarterly results anticipated by investors [1]. Group 1: Turnaround Strategies - Dollar General is implementing a "Back to Basics" strategy focusing on inventory management, store remodels, and reducing shrinkage to enhance operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [2]. - Dollar Tree plans to sell its struggling Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital for $1 billion, which is significantly lower than the original$8 billion purchase price, aiming to alleviate declining profitability and overhead costs [3]. Group 2: Performance Overview - Dollar General stock is currently trading 30% below its 52-week high of $141, while Dollar Tree shares are 25$121. Both stocks have rebounded over 20% year to date, with a surge of more than 30% in the last three months [4]. Group 3: Q1 Expectations - Dollar General's Q1 sales are projected to increase by 4% year over year to $10.29 billion, with an expected EPS decline to$1.47 from $1.65 a year ago. However, there is potential for Dollar General to surpass earnings expectations with a more accurate estimate of$1.51 [5]. - Dollar Tree's Q1 sales are expected to drop to $4.54 billion from$7.63 billion in the prior year, with earnings anticipated to decrease by 17% to $1.19 per share. The most accurate estimate suggests a potential EPS of$1.25, which is 5% above the Zacks Consensus [7][8]. Group 4: Valuation Comparison - Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree are trading at 17X forward earnings, which is a discount compared to the S&P 500 and the Zacks Retail-Discount Stores Industry average of 22X. They also trade under the optimal level of less than 2X sales [9]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Both companies hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) ahead of their Q1 reports, with future upside dependent on demonstrating a turnaround in operational efficiency and meeting or exceeding Q1 expectations [11][12].