Where Will Alibaba Stock Be in 10 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba, the largest e-commerce and cloud company in China, faces significant long-term challenges, including regulatory pressures and economic headwinds, which have impacted its stock performance and growth prospects [1][4][5]. Business Segments - Alibaba operates through seven business groups: Taobao and Tmall Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, Cainiao Smart Logistics Group, Local Services Group, Digital Media and Entertainment Group, and "All Others" segment [6][7]. - In fiscal 2025, Alibaba's total revenue reached $137.3 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year growth, with notable double-digit gains in international digital commerce, cloud intelligence, and local services [8][9]. Near-term Catalysts - The company anticipates growth from its overseas e-commerce marketplaces, cloud infrastructure, and advancements in AI technologies, particularly through its new family of large language models [10]. - To stabilize its core Chinese e-commerce business, Alibaba plans to enhance Taobao's live streaming features and offer more discount goods to compete with rivals like PDD and ByteDance's Douyin [11]. Long-term Catalysts - Alibaba's strategy to integrate its various business segments more deeply could drive growth as a diversified retail and tech giant, despite the cessation of plans to spin off most groups [12]. - The Chinese e-commerce market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10% from 2025 to 2030, while the public cloud market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2030, providing opportunities for Alibaba to maintain its market leadership [13]. Growth Projections - Assuming a conservative EPS growth rate of 10% from 2025 to 2035, Alibaba's stock price could potentially exceed $257 over the next decade, although this would still be below its all-time high of $310.29 in 2020 [14][15].