智通财经网·2025-06-03 01:24Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is expected to experience strong growth, with a significant demand for harmonic reducers projected by 2027, leading to potential supply shortages [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Demand - The traditional industrial sector, which includes industrial robots, is expected to demand approximately 2 million units in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 8-10% [2]. - The average usage of harmonic reducers in humanoid robots is over 10 units per machine, with global humanoid robot sales potentially exceeding 500,000 units by 2027, resulting in a demand for 6 million harmonic reducers [2]. - Total demand, combining traditional and humanoid robots, could reach 8.72 million units by 2027 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Capacity - By 2025, global effective production capacity for harmonic reducers is estimated at 5 million units, with a utilization rate of less than 50% [2]. - A demand surge in 2027 may create a supply gap exceeding 2 million units, with the long-term global market for harmonic reducers potentially exceeding 100 billion [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with domestic companies leading the incremental demand for humanoid robots [3]. - In 2024, Harmonic Drive (哈默纳科) is projected to hold a 58% global market share, while domestic company Green Harmonic (绿的) leads the first tier with a 15% share [3]. - New entrants are focusing on the humanoid sector, emphasizing manufacturers with strong technical capabilities and customer advantages [3]. Group 4: Pricing and Cost Structure - The mainstream price for harmonic reducers ranges from 1,000 to 2,000 per unit, with a slight downward trend expected [3]. - The manufacturing cost of harmonic reducers accounts for over 50% of the total cost, indicating significant potential for cost reduction through scale [3].