安全性提升推动新能源汽车发展：从政策驱动到技术深化的跨越 ——国内市场新能源汽车的安全升级与产业重构

Core Insights - The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry is transitioning from a phase driven by policy subsidies and market incentives to a technology-driven phase focused on safety, marked by the implementation of the new battery safety standard GB38031-2025 in July 2026 [1][2] Policy Iteration - The increase in safety requirements is a response to the rise in EV fire incidents, which reached 640 in Q1 2024, a 32% year-on-year increase, with 90% linked to battery thermal runaway [2] - The new national standard shifts from a "5-minute escape time" to a "zero tolerance" approach, mandating that vehicles must not catch fire or explode within 2 hours after a thermal runaway event [4] Technological Changes - Key changes include upgrades in thermal runaway management, scenario-based safety testing, and occupant health protection [4] - Companies are adopting multi-layered protective technologies, such as CATL's NP technology, to enhance safety [4] - New testing scenarios include bottom impact tests and safety tests after 300 fast charging cycles, with companies like Dongfeng demonstrating superior protective capabilities [4] Technical Pathways - The rise in safety standards is fostering competition and integration of diverse technological routes [5] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries are gaining prominence due to their higher safety, while ternary lithium batteries are seeking breakthroughs through design optimizations [5] - Solid-state batteries are viewed as a long-term direction due to their non-flammable electrolytes [5] Industry Dynamics - Compliance with new safety standards is expected to increase battery system costs by 15%-20%, potentially leading to price hikes or market exits for low-end models [6] - Despite cost pressures, companies are committed to maintaining safety standards and will be cautious in adopting unverified technologies [6] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with 30% of production capacity affected by 2027, benefiting leading companies [6] Market Reconstruction - The new standards are expected to create significant demand in the testing and certification sector, with single test costs exceeding 2 million yuan [8] - Improved safety will likely lead to lower insurance premiums for compliant vehicles, with potential reductions of 15%-20% [8] - Consumer perception is shifting, with safety becoming a primary consideration in vehicle purchases, as 78% of companies have developed "non-flammable" technologies, although less than 40% fully meet all standards [8]