Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-06-03 02:46Core Insights - The Chinese refining and chemical industry faces structural contradictions, characterized by an excess of refining capacity but insufficient high-end chemical production, necessitating increased technological innovation to overcome product bottlenecks and reshape the industry landscape [1] Industry Overview - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of petrochemical products, accounting for one-third of global consumption. In 2024, China's refining capacity is projected to reach 930 million tons, with ethylene capacity at 54.55 million tons per year, leading in various products such as propylene and synthetic resins [1] - The self-sufficiency rate of basic chemicals has significantly improved, yet there is an intensifying competition in low-end products and a high dependency on imports for high-end products [1] Capacity and Demand Dynamics - The production capacity growth for major chemical products like ethylene and propylene is expected to outpace demand, with an annual growth rate of 13.5% from 2025 to 2027, while the consumption growth rate is only projected at 4% to 5%. By 2025, propylene capacity utilization is anticipated to drop to 66% [1] - Despite a total domestic production of 700,000 tons of polyoxymethylene by the end of 2024, imports will still account for 330,000 tons, indicating technological bottlenecks hindering domestic production [1] Strategic Recommendations - Experts suggest that the government should establish a refining capacity red line and conduct scientific top-level design for integrated refining and chemical bases, while strictly controlling the pace of "oil-to-chemical" transitions and accelerating disruptive technological innovations [2] - There is a need for differentiated reform and development strategies based on the positioning and advantages of enterprises and products [2]