中国经济观测点丨淡季效应显现 6月国内钢材供需面临再平衡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, with steel prices expected to remain under pressure in June due to a combination of weak demand and decreasing production costs [2][20]. Group 1: Steel Production and Capacity - The operating rate of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, while the operating rate of electric arc furnaces has rebounded to 45.45%, up 1.8 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - As of May 28, the total weekly production of domestic construction steel was 3.2795 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 36,600 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 215,200 tons [5]. - The production of hot-rolled coils was 3.5479 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 189,500 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 312,100 tons [5]. Group 2: Steel Demand and Consumption - In May, steel consumption across various categories saw a month-on-month decline, with construction materials down 6.8% [9]. - The expected procurement volume for June indicates further declines, with construction materials anticipated to drop by 10.6% [9][11]. - The apparent consumption of construction steel was 3.4102 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 401,400 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 354,000 tons [13]. Group 3: Steel Inventory and Market Dynamics - Steel inventory continued to decline in May, with total inventory for construction steel at 7.4527 million tons, down 528,000 tons month-on-month [16]. - The overall inventory level is significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating a tightening supply despite the current demand weakness [15][16]. - The steel market is facing a rebalancing of supply and demand as production cuts and maintenance are expected to increase in June [20][21]. Group 4: Profitability and Cost Structure - In May, blast furnace steel mills maintained slight profitability, while electric arc furnace mills experienced expanded losses, with a production profit of -260 yuan per ton [18][19]. - The production costs for steel are expected to continue decreasing due to lower prices for raw materials like coke and coal [21].