Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower the main refinancing rate to 2%, which is half of the peak from a year ago and below the Federal Reserve's equivalent rate [2] - Despite eight consecutive rate cuts by the ECB, the euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar in the past four months, indicating a reversal in capital flows across the Atlantic [2] - The nominal effective exchange rate index of the euro has reached a new high, with the real exchange rate at its strongest level in over a decade [2] Group 2 - The ECB faces a challenge in managing the effects of rapid currency appreciation on inflation and domestic demand, especially if significant capital returns from the U.S. to Europe occur [2] - The anticipated further rate cuts by the ECB may have minimal impact on the euro, as the market expects a terminal rate around 1.75%, which is at the lower end of the ECB's neutral rate range [2] - Increased borrowing in Germany and across Europe is likely to maintain long-term fixed income returns, expanding the "safe" investment pool [2]
欧洲央行降息难阻欧元飙升 资本流动重塑利率博弈格局
Jin Tou Wang·2025-06-03 03:00