澳联储5月会议纪要：降息25基点旨在维持不确定时期政策可预测性

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% to ensure predictability in monetary policy amid increasing uncertainty [1] - The RBA's decision was influenced by domestic economic conditions and global trade policy changes, highlighting the risks posed by tariffs implemented by the Trump administration [1] - Australia's economy is vulnerable to global trade uncertainties, and while there are no significant negative impacts from U.S. tariffs observed yet, the RBA acknowledges potential indirect pressures from other countries [1] Group 2 - Despite high inflation and strong labor market indicators, the RBA concluded that it is not yet time to shift to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - The RBA's quarterly economic forecast indicates a slight return of core inflation to the target range of 2-3% and a slight loosening of the labor market, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 85 basis points by mid-2026 [2] - In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain stable interest rates due to economic strength and uncertainties related to tariffs [2]