日本通胀逼近2%目标 植田和男暗示继续加息可能性上升

Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, with improving corporate profits and stable business confidence, but signs of weakness are emerging, and economic growth is expected to slow down [3] - High uncertainty regarding trade policies, particularly U.S. tariff measures, poses a negative impact on Japan's economy, primarily affecting export companies and potentially weakening consumer confidence [3][8] Wage and Consumption - Actual wages in Japan are currently negative, significantly impacting consumption and the economy [7] - As real wages gradually improve, consumption is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [6] Inflation and Prices - Japan's core inflation rate is slightly below the 2% target, with the gap between basic inflation and overall inflation expected to narrow [9] - Cost-push inflation is having a significant adverse effect on households, but pressures from rising import prices are anticipated to diminish [9] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan has no preset plans for interest rate hikes and will consider raising rates only when economic and price conditions align with expectations [11] - The central bank aims to achieve a 2% inflation target and will implement monetary policy based on price and economic developments [12] Currency and Bond Market - A strong yen negatively impacts export and manufacturing profits but improves household real income; stable exchange rates are crucial for market stability [14] - Long-term bond yield fluctuations can affect short- and medium-term yields, with domestic investors being the primary buyers of long-term Japanese government bonds [14] Recent Rate Decisions - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, marking the largest increase among three hikes since March and July 2024 [16] - The central bank remains optimistic about economic and inflation conditions, with a projected CPI inflation rate of 2.4% for FY2025, up by 0.5 percentage points [16]