6月“开门黑”！美债收益率曲线全线上涨，是“财政清算”还是美债违约在即？

Group 1 - Concerns over the fiscal outlook have led to a "fiscal reckoning" for U.S. Treasuries, with credit default swap (CDS) spreads rising to their highest levels in two years [1][5] - In May, U.S. Treasuries, particularly long-term bonds, experienced their first monthly decline since 2025, with yields increasing by 4 to 7 basis points on June 2 [1][3] - The rise in CDS spreads is attributed to investor worries about the U.S. government's ability to meet its debt obligations, with the 5-year CDS spread nearing 50 basis points, up from approximately 30 basis points at the beginning of the year [5][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.47% and the 30-year yield briefly exceeding 5%, reflecting risks associated with potential trade measures from the Trump administration [3][4] - Despite the increase in long-term yields, large bond investment institutions are maintaining lower positions in Treasuries, favoring shorter maturities [3][6] - The CDS spread increase is seen as a temporary reaction by investors awaiting a new budget agreement to raise the debt ceiling, rather than an indication of an impending financial crisis or widespread default [6][7] Group 3 - The upcoming labor market reports are expected to significantly influence U.S. Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 [4] - The U.S. Treasury has reached its debt ceiling of $36.1 trillion, with limited borrowing capacity, raising concerns about the timing of when the government will exhaust its borrowing ability [5][6] - The passage of Trump's significant tax cut plan, estimated to increase U.S. debt by an additional $4 trillion, adds to the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and its impact on Treasury investments [6][7]