澳洲GDP+贸易数据双重考验 澳元多空博弈加剧

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is currently trading around 0.64, down 0.35% from the previous close of 0.6489, indicating a bearish trend in the currency market [1] - Key financial data releases this week include Australia's Q1 GDP growth rate, which, if it shows accelerated growth, could support the AUD despite adverse international trade conditions [2] - The April trade data and building approvals will also be significant; an expansion in the trade surplus or a less severe contraction in building approvals could bolster the AUD [2] Group 2 - The release of China's May PMI data may impact the AUD positively, as increased economic activity in China could enhance Australia's raw material exports [2] - The decline in the April CPI may lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue easing monetary policy, with market expectations of three more rate cuts by the end of the year, which could exert pressure on the AUD [2] - The AUD is viewed as a risk asset, and market sentiment can significantly influence its performance; heightened trade tensions remain a primary concern for the currency [2] Group 3 - Analysts emphasize that the Q1 GDP data release is a critical event for Australian traders, with potential shifts in market sentiment affecting the AUD's trajectory [2] - The AUD has been oscillating within a trading range for several weeks, indicating trader indecision regarding future direction; a cautious approach is advised before confirming any upward movement above the 0.6500 level [2] - A breakout above the 0.6500 level could target the earlier year high range of 0.6535-0.6340, with subsequent resistance levels at 0.6600 and 0.6640 [2]