美债6月开局遇挫，CDS利差攀升引市场关注

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant volatility due to concerns over fiscal outlook, with long-term Treasury bonds recording their first monthly decline since 2025 in May [1] - On June 2, Treasury yields across various maturities rose by 4 to 7 basis points, with the 10-year yield increasing over 6 basis points to nearly 4.47%, and the 30-year yield briefly surpassing 5%, driven by uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and the U.S. trade and fiscal policy outlook [1][3] - The credit default swap (CDS) spreads for U.S. Treasuries have been climbing, reaching near two-year highs, with the 5-year CDS spread approaching 50 basis points, up from about 30 basis points at the beginning of the year [3] Group 2 - Large bond investment institutions are maintaining lower overall holdings in U.S. Treasuries, favoring shorter-term bonds such as those with maturities of 5 years or less, with firms like BlackRock underweighting Treasuries and closely monitoring the impact of Trump's "beautiful plan" on the deficit [3] - The yield spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasuries is at its lowest level since 2021, and there was a momentary inversion between the 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields [3] - Upcoming labor market reports are expected to influence Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with traders currently anticipating two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, down from three cuts expected in May [3]