债市日报：6月3日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation phase, with significant differences in conditions compared to the first quarter, leading to expectations of a more favorable monetary policy environment in the second and third quarters of the year [1][6]. Market Performance - On June 3, the majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.03% at 119.45, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.03% to 108.69 [2]. - The interbank yield on major rate bonds mostly rose slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.6750% remaining flat, while the 30-year government bond yield increased by 1.25 basis points to 1.931% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.76 basis points to 4.440% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, with the 5-year and 10-year yields declining, while the 20-year yield rose by 0.8 basis points to 2.41% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, indicating a general upward trend in yields [3]. Primary Market - The results of the second local bond issuance in Hebei Province showed a bidding multiple exceeding 20 times, with the 10-year bond yielding 1.75% and a total bid multiple of 20.31 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 6.1 basis points to 1.41% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions believe that the current market fluctuations may present more opportunities than risks, with expectations of a new downward trend in interest rates after mid-June [6][7]. - There is a potential for a "liquidity crunch" post-quarter-end, which could improve market supply-demand dynamics [6]. - Credit bonds are currently outperforming government bonds, as non-bank institutions are reallocating deposits towards credit bonds and repos, leading to higher yields in the bond market [7].