Core Viewpoint - The OECD report indicates that Trump's confrontational trade policies have led to a global economic downturn, with the U.S. experiencing the most severe impact [1]. Economic Growth Forecast - The OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the U.S. growth rate significantly reduced from 2.8% to 1.6% [1][2]. - Other regions' forecasts include Euro area at 1.0%, Japan at 0.7%, China at 4.7%, and India at 6.3% for 2025 [2]. Impact of Trade Policies - The report highlights that trade barriers and policy uncertainty are undermining market confidence and investment activities, exacerbating inflationary pressures [1][4]. - OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira states that the global economic outlook is bleak, with reduced trade affecting income and employment growth [4]. Recommendations for Policy - The OECD emphasizes the importance of reaching agreements to ease trade tensions, reduce tariffs, and eliminate trade barriers to restore economic growth and investment [4]. - The report suggests that even if the Trump administration adjusts tariff policies, the positive effects on economic growth and inflation relief will not be immediate due to ongoing policy uncertainty [7]. Additional Economic Concerns - The report warns that the negative impacts of trade policies are compounded by immigration restrictions and large-scale federal layoffs, which may further deteriorate the U.S. economy [7]. - OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann notes that retaliatory measures from trade partners are slowing export growth, and significant immigration slowdown is also a concern [7]. Inflation and Fiscal Risks - The OECD predicts that U.S. inflation will continue to rise, with the Federal Reserve potentially delaying easing until 2026, and warns of the risk of consumer inflation expectations spiraling out of control [7]. - The report also highlights increasing global fiscal risks due to pressures from defense spending, climate governance, and aging populations, recommending governments to cut unnecessary spending and broaden the tax base [7].
贸易战谁最痛?OECD:特朗普关税重创美国 引爆全球经济衰退!
智通财经网·2025-06-03 09:25