2025年美国GDP预期再次下调 白银大盘走势依然乐观

Core Insights - Silver prices faced selling pressure after retreating from a seven-month high, trading around $34.15, influenced by profit-taking and a slight strengthening of the dollar amid easing trade tensions [1] - The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of contraction for the third consecutive month, with the PMI dropping from 48.7 to 48.5, below market expectations [2] - The OECD downgraded U.S. economic growth forecasts for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.5%, citing factors such as trade policy uncertainty and reduced federal employment [3] Group 1: Market Trends - Silver T+D closed up 2.75% at 8405.0 yuan/kg, despite the overall decline in silver prices during the European session [1] - The U.S. Treasury market started June poorly, with yields rising 4-7 basis points across the curve, particularly in long-term bonds, reflecting concerns over potential trade measures by the Trump administration [2] - The trend of increased home cooking in the U.S. has led to a decline in restaurant spending, which poses risks to consumer spending that constitutes two-thirds of GDP [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing index indicates ongoing contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector, raising concerns about economic growth [2] - The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan reached a historical low, reflecting negative public sentiment regarding the economic outlook [4] - The OECD's revised growth forecasts highlight a broader economic slowdown, particularly in North America, while other economies are expected to see smaller adjustments [3]