Is Barrick Mining's Slumping Gold Output a Red Flag Amid Rising Costs?

Group 1: Company Performance - Barrick Mining Corporation experienced a significant decline in gold production in Q1 2025, producing 758,000 ounces, which is a 19% decrease year-over-year and a 30% decline from the previous quarter, marking the lowest quarterly output in recent years [1][7] - The decline in production was primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine amid a dispute with the Malian government, along with lower output from Carlin and Cortez [1][5] - The company expects 2025 gold production to be in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces, down from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, excluding potential restarts of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [2][7] Group 2: Industry Comparison - Newmont Corporation reported an 8% year-over-year decline in gold production for Q1, reaching 1.54 million ounces, impacted by lower contributions from non-core operations [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited saw a modest decline of around 0.5% in gold production to 873,794 ounces, but is on track to meet its 2025 target of 3.3-3.5 million ounces [4] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick's earnings in 2025 and 2026 implies a year-over-year increase of 34.1% and 26.6%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [9] - Barrick is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.8, which is approximately a 21% discount compared to the industry average of 13.66X [10]