安联：特朗普财政方案第899条如同资本管制 恐使美股跌10%、美元贬5%

Core Viewpoint - Allianz's Chief Investment Officer Ludovic Subran warns that a specific tax provision in Trump's fiscal plan could lead to a 10% drop in the stock market and a 5% depreciation of the dollar if enacted [1] Group 1: Tax Provision Impact - The tax provision, known as Section 899, was passed in the House of Representatives in May and targets countries with "discriminatory" tax policies [1] - Subran describes the potential implementation of this provision as a "huge and terrifying moment" for the market [1] - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has expressed concerns, estimating that the provision could generate $116.3 billion in revenue over the next decade but ultimately reduce annual tax revenue by $12.9 billion in 2033 and 2034 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Subran predicts that the stock market could experience a sell-off of 10% and the dollar could depreciate by 5% if the tax provision is enacted [1] - He also anticipates a 0.5 percentage point increase in U.S. Treasury yields as a consequence of the provision [1] - Foreign investors hold a significant portion of U.S. long-term securities, including stocks and bonds, which could be affected by these changes [1]