国际观察｜双线交锋激烈博弈 俄乌谈判考验政治耐力

Core Points - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Istanbul, Turkey, where both sides reached a consensus on exchanging severely injured prisoners of war and the remains of deceased soldiers, but remained firm on key issues like ceasefire [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while there are some positive signals from the negotiations, significant divisions remain on critical issues such as ceasefire conditions and territorial disputes, indicating a prolonged period of conflict alongside negotiations [1][5] Negotiation Outcomes - The talks, hosted by Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, lasted about one hour and resulted in an agreement to exchange all severely injured prisoners of war and to conduct a large-scale exchange of the remains of deceased soldiers under the principle of "all for all" [2][4] - Russian officials expressed satisfaction with the outcomes, highlighting the importance of the agreement on the exchange of severely injured soldiers as a significant achievement [4] Remaining Disagreements - A memorandum regarding the resolution of the Ukraine crisis was presented by the Russian delegation, outlining their positions on key issues, including ceasefire and territorial matters, but significant contradictions with Ukraine's stance remain [5] - Ukraine rejected Russia's proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire during the negotiations, indicating that both sides have not yet prepared adequately for a ceasefire [5][10] Military Actions and Future Outlook - Military actions have continued around the time of the negotiations, with Ukraine launching drone attacks against Russian positions, suggesting both sides are seeking battlefield victories to strengthen their negotiating positions [8][10] - Analysts predict a scenario of "fighting while negotiating," with both parties unlikely to reach a swift peace agreement due to a lack of willingness to make significant compromises [10]