SkyWater Soars 23% in a Month: Should You Buy the Stock or Wait?

Core Insights - SkyWater Technology (SKYT) shares have increased by 22.6% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index, which returned 7.6% and 4.9% respectively [1][2] Strategic Developments - The stock's performance is largely due to SkyWater's acquisition of Infineon's Fab 25, a 200 millimetre foundry in Austin, TX, which is expected to close mid-year and enhance domestic semiconductor capacity [2][3] - The acquisition is supported by a four-year, over $1 billion supply deal, which will immediately increase revenues and cash flow, diversify revenues, and strengthen the company's role in U.S. semiconductor onshoring [3][4] Product Launch and Revenue Growth - SkyWater launched ThermaView Solutions in January 2025, aimed at high-performance thermal imaging applications, which has already driven a 70% sequential increase in Wafer Services revenues to $7.5 million in Q1 2025 [7][8] - Over half of Wafer Services' revenues in Q1 2025 came from new products, marking a significant shift from 2024 when 90% of revenues were from legacy products [8][10] Quantum Computing Advancements - SkyWater's partnership with D-Wave has led to significant advancements in quantum computing, with D-Wave achieving quantum supremacy, validating SkyWater's role in U.S.-based quantum innovation [11][12] - Quantum computing has become the second-largest end market for SkyWater, with over 90% of advanced compute revenues tied to quantum programs [13] Competitive Positioning - SkyWater differentiates itself from competitors like Tower Semiconductor, GlobalFoundries, and ON Semiconductor by focusing on specialized, high-value chip production and holding a Department of Defense accreditation [14][15] - The company's TaaS model supports early design-for-manufacturability and quality-focused production, allowing for rapid innovation [16] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYT's 2025 loss is currently at 1 cent per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 116.67%, with revenues estimated at $307.15 million, a decline of 10.26% [17] - SKYT has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 203.9% [18] Valuation Metrics - SKYT trades at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 1.28X, significantly lower than the industry average of 7.90X, making it an attractive option for value investors [19] Investment Consideration - SkyWater's unique position as a U.S.-based, DoD-accredited foundry, along with strong momentum in its Wafer Services segment and critical role in quantum computing, presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity [21][22]