韩经济疲软促央行再次降息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% and significantly revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 1.5% to 0.8%, reflecting a pessimistic assessment of the current economic situation [1][2][3] Economic Growth Factors - The construction sector's collapse is a major contributor to the GDP downgrade, accounting for 0.4 percentage points of the total 0.7 percentage point reduction [1] - Weak exports, particularly in key industries like semiconductors and automobiles, are also negatively impacting economic growth, with a potential drag of 0.2 percentage points on GDP [2] - Private consumption has not been able to compensate for the declines in construction investment and exports, with limited recovery expected despite interest rate cuts and fiscal spending [2][3] Monetary Policy Implications - The recent interest rate cut signals the possibility of further reductions if economic conditions do not improve, with the central bank emphasizing the need for careful control of policy measures to avoid past issues of irrational real estate price increases and high household debt [3] - The effectiveness of monetary easing is diminished due to structural constraints, with the focus shifting from merely stimulating growth to preventing further economic decline and financial market volatility [3][4] Long-term Economic Challenges - Structural issues in the economy are becoming more pronounced, with a reliance on construction investment and exports proving unsustainable, while domestic consumption is hindered by high housing prices and aging labor demographics [4] - The export sector faces challenges not only from reduced demand but also from global supply chain restructuring, with potential negative impacts on employment and consumer confidence [4][5] Key Variables for Future Outlook - The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, the adjustment of the real estate market, and changes in global trade policies will be critical in determining the future of the South Korean economy [5][6]