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关税阴云笼罩 交易员加码对冲美联储利率波动风险
智通财经网·2025-06-03 23:45

Group 1 - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the economy, leading traders to hedge against the risks of significant changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] - The swap market is currently pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in October, but there is a wide range of expectations regarding potential rate cuts, from no cuts to a cumulative 50 basis points by the end of 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have opposing views on when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut rates, with Goldman predicting larger cuts by 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - Recent strong economic data, such as an increase in job vacancies and a rebound in hiring, supports the view that the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged [1] - The article highlights that the ongoing trade policies of President Trump could disrupt the labor market and exacerbate inflation, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to take action [1] - There has been a rise in open interest in the options market, reaching approximately 250,000 contracts, which equates to about $25 million in premiums, contradicting the current expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by year-end [1]