一杯不到3元，卖“疯”了！外卖补贴点燃咖啡大战，原价市场还撑得住吗？

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of aggressive pricing strategies in the coffee market, particularly driven by delivery platforms like JD.com, has sparked a new wave of price wars among coffee brands, raising questions about the sustainability of such low prices and consumer behavior in the long term [1][6][11]. Pricing Strategies - A cup of coffee from Kudi Coffee can be as low as 1.68 yuan on JD.com, significantly lower than the 7.9 yuan price on Kudi's own app, indicating a drastic price reduction strategy [1][5]. - The order volume for Kudi Coffee has nearly doubled compared to mid-May, with over 600 orders recorded in a single afternoon, showcasing the impact of low pricing on consumer demand [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The entry of JD.com into the coffee delivery market has intensified competition, with coffee and tea beverages becoming key products for attracting users [3][6]. - The current price war is not initiated by coffee brands but rather by delivery platforms, which are heavily subsidizing prices to gain market share [5][6]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers have developed a "low-price inertia," leading to concerns about whether they will be willing to pay full price for coffee in the future [3][6]. - A consumer who previously spent 10 to 30 yuan on coffee has shifted to Kudi Coffee due to the significant price drop facilitated by delivery platform subsidies [4][6]. Industry Trends - The share of freshly brewed coffee in the overall coffee market is increasing, projected to reach 44.6% by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% from 2024 to 2028 [7][8]. - The price war is reminiscent of past strategies employed by brands like Luckin Coffee, which used low prices to quickly capture market share [6][10]. Challenges and Future Outlook - While the current low prices are attracting customers, brands face challenges related to supply chain management, operational efficiency, and product quality due to increased demand [11]. - Experts suggest that the coffee industry will undergo a process of consolidation, with weaker brands potentially exiting the market as competition intensifies [11].